Follow the Leaders
Virginia CEOs Report Economic Outlook in 2013 2nd Quarter Survey
Robins School of Business –Virginia Council of CEOs survey finds CEO economic outlook index highest in four quarters. Staffing concerns are most on the minds of VA CEOs.
Each quarter the Virginia Council of CEOs (VACEOs) and University of Richmond’s Robins School of Business partner to take the pulse of top executives in the region.
The survey results provided by Jeff Pollack, assistant professor of management at the Robins School of Business, provide a snap shot of the overall economic outlook index for various companies within the region and help central Virginia companies anticipate business decisions and plan for growth. This quarter the survey finds the overall outlook index of top executives is the highest compared to the four previous quarters.
Says Scot McRoberts, executive director of the Virginia Council of CEOs, “I’m not surprised that the index is up. The CEOs I work with are busier than they have been in a while.”
VA CEOs Economic Performance for 2nd Quarter, 2013
Among the executives of small and mid-sized companies participating in the survey, 68 percent anticipate an increase in sales, up 4 percent from last quarter. Expected capital spending has also increased 6.8 percent from last quarter to 36.1 percent. Employment expectancies decreased less than a point.
The survey also found staffing and economic uncertainty to be the most significant issues CEOs currently face. Some 40 percent of CEOs said their business performed about as expected over the past six months, with 9.1 percent saying performance was mostly better than expected, down 5.8 percent from the first quarter survey.
Affordable Care Act: Will VA CEOs Make Adjustments?
When asked “The changes coming to health insurance (Affordable Care Act) are changing the way you operate your business,” 23.6 percent said they neither agreed nor disagreed, while 20 percent said they slightly agree. Of the respondents 74.1 percent said they do not plan to drop employer-provided health insurance in the next three years. (First time question included in the Robins School of Business / VACEOs Economic Survey.)
“We see in these data a continued positive trend building from the last quarter—growing optimism regarding sales, capital spending, as well as employment growth for the next six months,” said Jeff Pollack, assistant professor of management at the Robins School, who calculated the results. “Staffing issues, economic uncertainty and rising healthcare costs are the top three areas of concern noted by the current sample of CEOs.”
Survey Results
The following survey results, from the first and second quarter of 2013 show projections for the next six months for sales, spending and employment:
The results also provide an overall economic outlook index, which is based on businesses’ projected six-month sales, spending and employment figures.
Economic Outlook Index
About the 2013, 1st Quarter Robins School of Business / VACEOs Economic Survey
The Quarterly Outlook Survey is conducted jointly by the Virginia Council of CEOs and University of Richmond’s Robins School of Business and is an adaption of the national Business Roundtable survey conducted by an association of CEOs of American companies.
This quarters results were based on the collected responses from 72 CEOs in central Virginia. The average annual revenue year-to-date for CEOs responding was $9.47 million. The data were compared to the first quarter 2013 of 75 participants. Multiple industries are represented in the sample (for example, construction, manufacturing, finance and insurance, and retail).
Request Results
The VA Council of CEOs continues to expand the survey beyond its members, offering any area business owners whose companies gross at least $1 million in annual revenue the opportunity to participate. If enough businesses participate, the Council will provide survey results by industry. Participation is free, and all participants will receive copies of the survey data.
Business owners and CEOs who would like to participate in the next survey should contact Scot McRoberts at smcroberts@vaceos.org.
Virginia CEOs Report Economic Outlook in 2013 1st Quarter Survey
Robins School of Business –Virginia Council of CEOs survey finds CEO economic outlook index up for first time in three quarters.
The Robin School of Business / VACEOs Economic Survey projects an overall economic outlook index, which is based on businesses’ projected six-month sales, spending and employment figures.
Each quarter the Virginia Council of CEOs (VACEOs) and University of Richmond’s Robins School of Business partner to take the pulse of top executives in the region. The survey results provided by Jeff Pollack, assistant professor of management at the Robins School of Business, provide a snap shot of the overall economic outlook index for various companies within the region and help central Virginia companies anticipate business decisions and plan for growth. This quarter the survey reveals the outlook index is on the rise for the first time in three quarters.
Says Scot McRoberts, executive director of the Virginia Council of CEOs, “We finally have some good news to report! This data reflects what many of the CEOs I work with tell me—they are as busy as they have been in years.”
VA CEOs Economic Performance for 1st Quarter, 2013
Among the executives of small and mid-sized companies participating in the survey, 64 percent anticipate an increase in sales, up 5.8 percent from last quarter. Expected capital spending has increased 3.7 percent from last quarter to 29.3 percent. Employment expectancies also increased to 53.3 percent, up from 44 percent last quarter.
Says Scot McRoberts, executive director of the Virginia Council of CEOs, “When I look at our survey’s results and listen to the challenges facing small company CEOs, I’m not surprised that there is an increase in the hiring percentage. I am hearing a lot about competition for talent in our market.”
Business Performance Results
The survey also found staffing and financial issues, along with growth and economic uncertainty to be the most significant issues CEOs currently face. Some 29.7 percent of CEOs said their business performed about as expected over the past six months, with 14.9 percent saying performance was mostly better than expected, up 6.5 percent from the fourth quarter survey.
“We see in these data a departure from the previous trend of declining optimism—here, anticipated sales, projected capital spending, as well as employment growth are all more positive, relative to Q4 of 2012. And, the overall outlook index is up dramatically compared to Q4 2012,” said Jeff Pollack, assistant professor of management at the Robins School, who calculated the results. “Staffing issues, financial issues and too slow growth are the top three areas of concerns noted by the current sample of CEOs.”
About the 2013, 1st Quarter Robins School of Business / VACEOs Economic Survey
The Quarterly Outlook Survey is conducted jointly by the Virginia Council of CEOs and University of Richmond’s Robins School of Business and is an adaption of the national Business Roundtable survey conducted by an association of CEOs of American companies.
This quarters results were based on the collected responses from 75 CEOs in central Virginia. The average annual revenue year-to-date for CEOs responding was $10.8 million. The data were compared to the fourth quarter 2012 of 91 participants. Multiple industries are represented in the sample (for example, construction, manufacturing, finance and insurance, and retail).
The results also provide an overall economic outlook index, which is based on businesses’ projected six-month sales, spending and employment figures.
Request Results
The VA Council of CEOs continues to expand the survey beyond its members, offering any area business owners whose companies gross at least $1 million in annual revenue the opportunity to participate. If enough businesses participate, the Council will provide survey results by industry. Participation is free, and all participants will receive copies of the survey data.
Business owners and CEOs who would like to participate in the next survey should contact Scot McRoberts at smcroberts@vaceos.org.
Virginia CEOs Report Economic Outlook in 2012 4th Quarter Survey
Robins School of Business –Virginia Council of CEOs survey finds economic uncertainty, slow growth and staffing issues the top three areas of concern heading into 2013.
The Robin School of Business / VACEOs Economic Survey projects an overall economic outlook index, which is based on businesses’ projected six-month sales, spending and employment figures.
[January 18, 2013.] Each quarter the Virginia Council of CEOs (VACEOs) and University of Richmond’s Robins School of Business partner to take the pulse of top executives in the region. The survey results provided by Jeff Pollack, assistant professor of management at the Robins School of Business, provide a snap shot of the overall economic outlook index for various companies within the region and help central Virginia companies anticipate business decisions and plan for growth.This quarter the survey reveals the outlook index is now dropping compared to last quarter.
Says Scot McRoberts, executive director of the Virginia Council of CEOs, “Most of the small business CEOs I work with express optimism in spite of this gloomy data. I think it may be their new reality — expect the worst and outperform expectations.”
VA CEOs Economic Performance for 4th Quarter, 2012
Out of the top executives of small and mid-sized companies participating in the survey, 58.2 percent anticipate a smaller increase in sales, down 3.6 percent from the third quarter. The results also show that only 25.6 percent of CEOs expect an increase in capital spending, down from 31.7 percent last quarter. The one piece of optimism in the survey showed that 44 percent expect employment to increase, up 2.6 percent in the third quarter.
“The results of the fourth quarter CEO survey reflect uncertainty in the economy. Firms were more likely to keep capital spending unchanged in the fourth quarter, perhaps waiting for uncertainty about the election and the fiscal cliff to be resolved. The overall economic outlook index was the lowest it has been since the second quarter of 2011,” said Dean Croushore, professor of economics at the Robins School.
Business Performance Results
The survey also found rising healthcare costs and economic uncertainty to be the most significant issues CEOs are currently facing. Of business performance in the past six months, 38.6 percent of CEOs said their business performed about as expected, with 26.5 percent saying performance was somewhat better than expected, up 4.5 percent from the last survey.
“Relative to the third quarter, anticipated sales and capital spending growth are both down,” said Jeff Pollack, assistant professor of management at the Robins School, who calculated the results. “We saw a sharp increase in the perception that no change in capital spending will occur in the next six months, but employment growth, relative to the third quarter, is up slightly. Economic uncertainty, to slow growth, and staffing issues are the top three areas of concerns noted by the current sample of CEOs.”
About the 2012, 4th Quarter Robins School of Business / VACEOs Economic Survey
The Quarterly Outlook Survey is conducted jointly by the Virginia Council of CEOs and University of Richmond’s Robins School of Business and is an adaption of the national Business Roundtable survey conducted by an association of CEOs of American companies.
This quarters results were based on the collected responses from 91 CEOs in central Virginia. The average annual revenue year-to-date for CEOs responding was $7.97 million. The data were compared to the third quarter 2012 of 90 participants. Multiple industries are represented in the sample (for example, construction, manufacturing, finance and insurance, and retail).
The results also provide an overall economic outlook index, which is based on businesses’ projected six-month sales, spending and employment figures.
Request Results
The VA Council of CEOs continues to expand the survey beyond its members, offering any area business owners whose companies gross at least $1 million in annual revenue the opportunity to participate. If enough businesses participate, the Council will provide survey results by industry. Participation is free, and all participants will receive copies of the survey data.
Business owners and CEOs who would like to participate in the next survey should contact Scot McRoberts at smcroberts@vaceos.org.
About the The Robins School of Business
The Robins School of Business is the only fully accredited, top-ranked undergraduate business school that also is part of a top-ranked liberal arts university. Bloomberg Businessweek ranks both the Robins School’s undergraduate and part-time MBA programs among the top 20 in the country in their respective categories. The school’s executive education division offers open enrollment courses and customized leadership development programs for individuals and businesses.
About The Virginia Council of CEOs
The Virginia Council of CEOs (VACEOs) is a nonprofit organization, whose mission is to connect the CEOs of second-stage companies so they can learn from each other and grow their businesses. Learn more at www.vaceos.org.
CEOs Share Concerns and Economic Outlook for Third Quarter, 2012
Virginia CEOs Reveal Top Three Issues for Next President to Address: Tax Reform, the National Debt, Healthcare
[October 2, 2012] Survey also reports economic outlook index to be flat and financial, economy, and staffing issues of personal concern during 2012 3rd Quarter.
Each quarter the Virginia Council of CEOs (VACEOs) and University of Richmond’s Robins School of Business partner to take the pulse of top executives in the region. The survey results provided by Jeff Pollack, Assistant Professor of Management at the Robins School of Business, provide a snap shot of the overall economic outlook index for various companies within the region and help central Virginia companies anticipate business decisions and plan for growth.This quarter, CEOs were also asked to identify the priorities for the next president.
Presidential Priorities Come January
When asked what economic issue the next president must address in January, tax rates/reform (89.7%), national debt (61%) and healthcare (47%) ranked highest.
Says Scot McRoberts, Executive Director of the Virginia Council of CEOs, “Small Business CEOs I work with are just tired of the uncertainty, whether it is economic growth, health care, regulation, or taxation. I think the presidential election is a huge psychological hurdle. Once we are past it, the hope is that it will mean more decisive leadership from Washington.”
VA CEOs Economic Performance for Third Quarter
The top executives of small and mid-sized companies participating in the survey anticipated changes in projected six month sales, spending and employment, with 61.8 percent saying they expect their company’s sales to increase, down from 66.6 percent last quarter.
The results showed that 31.7 percent of CEOs expect increased capital spending, up from 27.8 percent last quarter, while only 41.4 percent expect employment to increase, down from 50 percent last quarter.
Of business performance in the past six months, 29.3 percent of CEOs said their business performed about as expected, with 26.8 percent saying performance was somewhat worse than expected.
“The September CEO outlook survey results showed little change from August. That’s a bit disappointing because the Richmond Fed’s manufacturing index improved in September, as did the Institute for Supply Management’s national index of purchasing managers,” said Dean Croushore, Professor of Economics and Rigsby Fellow at the University of Richmond. He added, “The CEO index remains well below its level in the first quarter this year, which suggests that the Virginia economy’s growth is likely to remain slow.”
“We see in these data a mixed picture—while anticipated sales and employment growth are both down, relative to Q2, predicted capital spending over the next 6 months is up,” said Jeff Pollack, Assistant Professor of Management at the Robins School, who calculated the results. “The overall outlook index is flat compared to Q2. Economic uncertainty, financial issues, and staffing issues are the top three areas of concerns noted by the current sample of CEOs.”
About the 2012, 3rd Quarter Robins School of Business / VACEOs Economic Survey
The Quarterly Outlook Survey is conducted jointly by the Virginia Council of CEOs and University of Richmond’s Robins School of Business and is an adaption of the national Business Roundtable survey conducted by an association of CEOs of American companies.
This quarters results were based on the collected responses from 84 CEOs in central Virginia. The average annual revenue year-to-date for CEOs responding was $7.97 million. The data were compared to the 2nd quarter 2012 of 90 participants. Multiple industries are represented in the sample (for example, construction, manufacturing, finance and insurance, and retail).
The Robin School of Business / VACEOs Economic Survey projects an overall economic outlook index, which is based on businesses’ projected six-month sales, spending and employment figures.
Request Results
The VA Council of CEOs continues to expand the survey beyond its members, offering any area business owners whose companies gross at least $1 million in annual revenue the opportunity to participate. If enough businesses participate, the Council will provide survey results by industry. Participation is free, and all participants will receive copies of the survey data.
Business owners and CEOs who would like to participate in the next survey should contact Scot McRoberts at smcroberts@vaceos.org.
About the The Robins School of Business
The Robins School of Business is the only fully accredited, top-ranked undergraduate business school that also is part of a top-ranked liberal arts university. Bloomberg Businessweek ranks both the Robins School’s undergraduate and part-time MBA programs among the top 20 in the country in their respective categories. The school’s executive education division offers open enrollment courses and customized leadership development programs for individuals and businesses.
About The Virginia Council of CEOs
The Virginia Council of CEOs (VACEOs) is a nonprofit organization, whose mission is to connect the CEOs of second-stage companies so they can learn from each other and grow their businesses. Learn more at www.vaceos.org.
Alan’s Economic Forecast & Five Ways to Prepare Now
As always, our Annual CEO Retreat at Kingsmill brought over-the-top speakers and quality peer-to-peer breakout sessions. We learned how to build a winning sales culture, how Net Promoter Score (NPS) can be part of growth strategy, and we got a chance to share our recession confessions. And, according to economist and closing speaker Alan Beaulieu, we were told to gear up for the next economic storm.
The immediate forecast is as he projected last year. Regardless of what is reported by the news and expressed in opinion polls, Alan reports we are currently in a recovery, that is until 2019. That’s when another recession will likely occur.
Here are five action items to better position your business for the next storm:
- Get aggressive. In Alan’s words, “This is the time to grow your business. We can’t afford to lay back in the weeds.”
- Borrow. How much? “As much money as you can. Until you can’t sleep any more — that kinda money.”
- Spend. Invest in customer market research and use the data align your company around what your customers want. Then become efficient and raise prices.
- Invest or move into areas like water, waste, electricity, or food.
- Prepare for the storm. Watch the Money Supply, Corporate Bonds Rate-of-Change and the U.S. Leading indicators, among others. Alan says, “Ask yourself what would I have done in 2009 if I would have known a recession was coming? Start doing that in 2017.”
About Alan Beaulieu
“One of the country’s most informed economists, Alan Beaulieu is a principal of the ITR Economics where he serves as President. Since 1990, he has been consulting with companies throughout the US, Europe, and Asia on how to forecast, plan, and increase their profits based on business cycle trend analysis. Alan is also the Senior Economic Advisor to NAW, Contributing Editor for Industry Week, and the Chief Economist for HARDI.*”
Alan is (unprecedented) three-time presenter at the Annual VACEOS Retreat. He delivers an economic outlook presentation that is a mixed bag of financial stats peppered with specific take aways and occasional bits of humor delivered with comedic precision. His 2012 presentation audio is available for download in it’s entirety to VACEOS members by contacting the office.
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